According to updated forecasts of the Central Bank, by the end of 2020, the inflation rate in the country will decrease by 1% compared to initial estimates (12-13.5%) and will amount to 11-12.5%.
According to the Central Bank, this is due to the following factors:
First, a decrease in external and internal economic activity affects the incomes of the population, which leads to a significant reduction in demand for goods and services in the consumer basket that are not considered essential.
Secondly, the establishment of zero rates of customs duties and excise tax on the import of several basic consumer goods and their raw materials by December 31, 2020 will prevent a sharp increase in prices for goods in high demand during the quarantine period.
Thirdly, as a result of postponing the increase of energy prices that was included in price liberalization reforms this year, it will not have a negative impact on inflation.
Fourth, the dynamics of price increases for certain foods and consumer goods under quarantine is temporary, because the saturation of markets with these products of a new harvest that will be collected in the coming months and the measures taken by the Government to ensure food security will lead to stabilization of their prices.
In addition, these factors will help mitigate the negative impact of devaluation of the national currency on the domestic market.