Experts talk about a canal being built by Taliban and its tragic consequences for Uzbekistan

I think there will be a lot of water loss. It has a great impact on the ecology of the environment, the composition of the soil, and the salinity cycle. Even if 50% of the water reaches the field, there will still be problems, because the field is not yet ready to receive this water. The worst part is that there should be irrigation networks, distribution-metering facilities. There are questions about how the farmers in that area are prepared, what they want to grow, and how much water they need.

How might it affect us? Until now, Afghanistan received 7 km³ of water from the Amudarya basin. Now it is planned to get 17 km³. This means that we have a 10-15% decrease. It has a negative effect on those downstream.

It may not be felt in Tajikistan, but the reduction of the main water will be in the territory of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. At worst, it will seriously affect Karakalpakstan and Khorezm, which are in the lower part of the river.

Due to climate change and general drought, our water resources are decreasing. We are losing 15% of water due to climate change, and if we lose at least 10%, 25% of water will be lost. This causes many crises. It will be difficult for us to fill the reservoirs. We will have to build additional facilities. The whole system might break down. We must always be prepared for water shortages.

- There is a UN Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses. You said that if this channel is built, it will be a big tragedy for us. But the Taliban say that “the area is ours, the water passes through us, which means that we have the right to build a canal”. 

Usmon Norkulov:

- All Central Asian states receive water from transboundary rivers. States must agree with each other. Afghanistan is not a member of the Convention. Depending on natural supply, states should share the existing water. It should not be insisted to take a certain amount of water. In the deployment of natural supply, the population, the requirements for water should be taken into account. When calculations become clear, the countries should agree and interact.

It should be noted that there will be a shortage of water in Central Asia, which does not end. Therefore, for example, whether we are moving to water-saving technologies, others must do the same. Any water-saving solutions should be implemented together. And as a result, existing waters will be sufficient for all of us.

- In the last few months, the Taliban’s interim government and the Uzbek government have cold relations in terms of water issue. For example, from February 1, Afghanistan suspended the railway from Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan Railways has said the contract between the two countries has not been implemented in a timely manner. As a political scientist, how much do know about this relationship? What is the problem?

Kamoliddin Rabbimov:

- There is a chain that consists of a number of unsolved problems. Uzbekistan’s geopolitical view – the new Afghan administration should maintain peace in Afghanistan. That is why in 2018, the Taliban began diplomatic relations ahead of its governance. For the first time in the past 40 years, one political force is controlling the entire region in Afghanistan. To avoid the start of the citizens’ war again, peacekeeping in Afghanistan is considered strategic interests of Uzbekistan. But the demographic growth of Afghanistan is very large (38 million people as of today). It wants to supply water and develop agriculture in its northern three regions, ensure its own food security through this. The result is ensuring social stability. Afghanistan has benefits, but the consequences are negative. Great water is also consumed during the transition via Turkmenistan.

The diplomatic relations with Afghanistan are now acute dilemma in front of Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan cannot fully accept the issue because of its interests. However, Afghanistan has the right to use water in accordance with the international law. Uzbekistan is facing a complex task: Even if the Taliban disagree with the Transboundary Water Convention, a specific agreement should be reached for control of water supervision.

Uzbekistan cannot put veto in the construction of a canal. No state of the region wants a war with the Taliban, but Uzbekistan cannot stand by due to its interests. In my opinion, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will hold talks with the Taliban. There is no other way.

Sukhrob Buronov:

- Water is the issue of the future. There will also be talk of turning water into a political weapon. According to “Global Water Intelligence” magazine, the revenue generated in the water market in one year is close to the amount of money used for military purposes. This raises the issue of fresh water and water used for irrigation in the future. It is already becoming clear in Central Asia.

The construction of the Kushtepa canal made the issue more urgent. 108 km – the first stage was officially announced. It means that one of the three stages has been completed. Because we are downstream, we can be greatly affected.

The political aspect of the matter is that they can use it to exert political pressure. To prevent this, we will have to respond adequately. I guess the suspension of railway communication is related to this issue. Because in the presidential address in December, Shavkat Mirziyoyev also talked about the construction of this canal.

According to information, this is a $684 million project. This is a huge sum for the Taliban government, which is on the brink of economic crisis. And this funding force tries to influence bilateral relations. Or it may be aimed at exerting some kind of political pressure. This should also be avoided. The main thing is that it should be based on international legal conventions.

Usmon Norkulov:

- For this, Afghanistan should become a member of the convention. There is no conflict between Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan on the issue of water, because everything is accepted based on reason. It will be distributed according to the amount of water in the basin. I think that water will be sufficient for both countries if we handle it in an equal relationship. For this, all countries should establish a system of efficient use of water.

One can watch the full interview in the video above.