Uzbekistan turns to China for new generation fighter jets amid shifting alliances

Chinese authorities have also offered various incentives to persuade Uzbekistan to move forward with the purchase, including flexible payment options, technology cooperation, and specialized military training for Uzbek Air Force pilots. Beijing's maintenance packages, which include logistical support and extended servicing, could reduce Uzbekistan’s overall life-cycle costs by an estimated 30–40%, according to defense analysts. Russia, Uzbekistan’s previous main supplier, imposed restrictions on modifications and forced high maintenance costs by requiring reliance on Russian parts and facilities. Purchasing Russian Su-30SM aircraft ($50–60 million per unit) could increase total expenses by up to 50% once training and maintenance are factored in. Meanwhile, Western alternatives like the Rafale are significantly more expensive and come with strict end-user conditions. Thus, Uzbekistan’s selection of the JF-17C and J-35A is driven by both economic advantages and minimal political strings. China's offer aligns with Uzbekistan’s goals of modernizing its forces while achieving strategic independence.

Political considerations are just as important as economic ones. The Ukraine conflict has weakened Russia’s position as a reliable weapons supplier, limiting its export capabilities due to sanctions, resource shortages, and battlefield losses. In response, Uzbekistan is expanding its diplomatic alliances to gain greater strategic freedom. China’s growing technological capabilities and willingness to provide high-end military platforms without excessive political conditions make it a strong alternative supplier. Although China has not yet fully integrated the J-35A into its own military, this stealth fighter has already entered international markets, reflecting China’s ambition to expand its global military influence.

If finalized, Uzbekistan’s purchase of the J-35A would make it the first Central Asian country to acquire fifth-generation stealth aircraft, significantly enhancing its military strength.

Chinese fighter jets have made remarkable technological advances over the past two decades, reaching parity with Russian and even Western products in certain areas. The J-35A fifth-generation stealth multirole fighter features an advanced AESA radar, infrared search and track (IRST) system, and radar-absorbent coatings that reduce its radar cross-section to under 0.005 square meters—comparable to early U.S. F-35 models. Initially developed from the FC-31 platform starting in 2012, the J-35A is now being adapted for China's new aircraft carriers. Meanwhile, the JF-17C Block III is already in operational service with the Pakistan Air Force, praised for its ease of maintenance and versatility. As of 2023, Uzbekistan’s air fleet included only about 10–12 functional MiG-29s. Russia’s Su-57 fifth-generation fighter remains in very limited production (fewer than 30 units as of 2024), facing additional setbacks from international sanctions. For many mid-sized militaries, Western aircraft like the F-16 or Rafale remain financially out of reach despite superior performance metrics. Chinese aircraft provide practical enhancements for air power at lower costs and fewer political constraints.

This acquisition would have implications beyond Uzbekistan’s borders. By acquiring J-35A fighters, Uzbekistan could prompt neighboring Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to pursue similar upgrades, potentially triggering a regional arms competition. China, meanwhile, would quietly strengthen its diplomatic influence in the region through defense exports.

Russia would likely perceive Uzbekistan’s closer ties with China as a strategic loss, as Moscow has historically dominated military alliances in Central Asia. However, given Russia’s industrial limitations and geopolitical setbacks, it is unlikely to counter China’s growing influence using its Su-57 or Su-75 fighters in the near future. China has successfully positioned itself as a leading security partner for post-Soviet states seeking new strategic directions.

It is important to note that J-35A production is still under development, especially the carrier-based version. Full-scale production is expected to begin in 2027 or later, meaning actual deliveries to Uzbekistan would likely occur beyond that timeframe. This delay provides Tashkent with an opportunity to reassess its defense needs, negotiate better terms, and explore additional partnerships with countries like Turkey, South Korea, and EU member states.

Uzbekistan’s plan to acquire the J-35A stealth fighter from China reflects not only a drive to modernize technologically and economically but also a broader shift in its geopolitical strategy. The move fits within Tashkent’s efforts to diversify its military partnerships and reduce reliance on Russian supplies. If completed successfully, this deal would significantly enhance Uzbekistan’s air power and consolidate China’s position as a major defense supplier in Central Asia. Uzbekistan’s actions indicate its intention to take an active role in shaping its defense capabilities and securing its strategic future.

Firdavs Mustaqimov,

Institute for Advanced International Studies