World Bank: Uzbekistan may need more than 100 years to join high-income countries

The World Bank has published its report “Accelerate growth through entrepreneurship, technology adoption, and innovation” covering Europe and Central Asia. The study includes projections on how long it will take developing countries in the region to reach the per capita income threshold of high-income economies. The 2023 high-income benchmark – $14,005 per person – was used as the target.

Based on the past 10 years’ average economic growth, the World Bank estimates that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan could reach this level in 40 years, Kyrgyzstan in 70 years, and Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in over 100 years. The calculation reflects pandemic-related downturns and earlier sharp declines in Kazakhstan’s and Kyrgyzstan’s incomes, which lowered average growth rates.

Economist Mirkomil Kholboev noted that using only post-pandemic average growth rates paints a different picture:

“According to my calculations, Kazakhstan could surpass the $14,000 level as early as 2026, Turkmenistan in 2034, Tajikistan in 2037, and Uzbekistan in 2042. Still, Uzbekistan would remain the last in the region to reach this threshold.”

In 2024, Uzbekistan’s total household income amounted to UZS 896.3 trillion, with nominal growth of 18.5% and real growth (adjusted for inflation) of 8.1%. Per capita income increased by 16.1% in nominal terms (5.9% in real terms) – from UZS 20 million per year to UZS 24.1 million (around UZS 2 million per month). Based on the average annual exchange rate of UZS 12,500 per US dollar, this equates to $1,600–1,900.

Other key points from the World Bank report

• The World Bank forecasts Uzbekistan’s GDP growth at around 5.9% in both 2025 and 2026.

• In 2024, remittances to Uzbekistan – largely from Russia – grew by 30% to nearly $15 billion.

• In most Central Asian and Western Balkan countries, remittances account for more than one-tenth of GDP, providing substantial support to households.

• Remittances represent almost 40% of GDP in Tajikistan, over 20% in Kyrgyzstan, and about 18% in Kosovo. The average for Europe and Central Asia is 7%. Without remittances, poverty levels in Central Asia would be significantly higher – in Uzbekistan’s case, roughly double.

• Uzbekistan ranks 10th in the world for total remittance inflows.

• Uzbekistan’s and Moldova’s fiscal positions have improved significantly. In Uzbekistan, the budget deficit as a share of GDP narrowed by over 2 percentage points to 3.3% in 2024, largely due to reduced energy subsidies.