Central Bank keeps key rate unchanged at 14 percent

The decision was made during the bank’s board meeting on March 18, as the regulator emphasized the need to maintain tight monetary conditions to bring inflation down to its medium-term target.

According to the Central Bank, the recent downward trend in inflation has slowed due to rising prices of certain food products. At the same time, core inflation has increased, reflecting underlying price pressures in the economy.

Since the beginning of 2026, inflationary processes have shown some acceleration. Core inflation followed an upward trajectory and reached 6.3 percent year-on-year in February, while overall inflation remained relatively stable at 7.3 percent, supported by diminishing seasonal factors.

Rising food prices have also contributed to elevated inflation expectations among consumers and businesses.

Economic activity remains robust, largely driven by strong aggregate demand. This is evident in the growth of retail and wholesale trade turnover, an increase in real estate transactions, and continued execution of government spending.

These factors are supporting stable growth rates in key sectors such as industry, services, and construction.

At the same time, a notable increase in producer prices has been observed. Against the backdrop of strong demand, this raises the likelihood that higher production costs will be passed on to consumers in the coming months.

The regulator also highlighted growing external risks linked to rising geopolitical tensions. These developments could disrupt global supply chains and lead to higher prices for energy and food commodities, as well as increased logistics costs.

Such factors may create additional inflationary pressure through higher import prices in the domestic market.

However, positive expectations regarding the relative stability of currencies of Uzbekistan’s main trading partners, along with sustained high gold prices and continued growth in export revenues and remittances, are expected to limit pressure on the real exchange rate of the national currency.

The Central Bank noted that lending growth is gradually normalizing, while tight monetary conditions – combined with macroprudential measures in the consumer lending segment – are helping to balance aggregate demand and reduce excess price pressures.

Taking these factors into account, the regulator considers it necessary to continue its tight monetary policy stance to ensure price stability and reduce inflation expectations.

The Central Bank reiterated that its policy will remain focused on lowering inflation to its medium-term target of 5 percent, ensuring macroeconomic stability, and preserving the purchasing power of the population.

The next meeting of the central bank’s board to review the key rate is scheduled for April 29, 2026.