Inflation expectations among consumers and businesses ease slightly in September

According to the Central Bank’s September survey, inflation expectations among the population and business representatives have somewhat weakened, although several internal and external pressures on economic agents remain in place.

Inflation expectations

In September, inflation expectations for the next 12 months among the population stood at 12 percent – down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The findings are based on responses from 3,420 participants.

Among business entities, inflation expectations reached 11.7 percent, marking a 0.1 percentage point decrease compared to August.

Factors influencing inflation expectations

According to respondents, the main factor likely to drive price increases in the coming year is the rise in utility service costs – 46 percent of those surveyed expressed concern about this.

Meanwhile, 41 percent of respondents expect higher fuel and energy prices. One in four participants believes that rising wages and pensions, higher transport costs, and increases in basic food prices will also be among the key contributors to inflation in the next 12 months.

Businesses similarly anticipate the sharpest growth in utility, fuel, and energy costs, with four in ten entrepreneurs holding this view.

Regional and sectoral differences

Inflation expectations vary significantly across regions. Among the population, the highest level was recorded in Syrdarya region at 12.7 percent, while the lowest was in Bukhara region at 10.5 percent.

Among entrepreneurs, expectations exceeded 13 percent in Tashkent city, Samarkand, and Khorezm regions. In contrast, business representatives in Karakalpakstan reported inflation expectations of 10.3 percent, and those in Kashkadarya – 10.4 percent.

By sector, respondents engaged in agriculture estimated lower price growth, while those in the information technology and media industries expressed higher inflation expectations.

Perceived inflation

The population’s perceived inflation over the past year stood at 12.4 percent – a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

In Tashkent, perceived inflation reached 13.9 percent, while residents of Khorezm assessed price growth over the past year as the lowest among regions – 10.8 percent.

Between August and September, respondents most frequently noticed price increases for meat and dairy products, gasoline and fuel, electricity and natural gas, medicines, and fruits and vegetables.

According to the Central Bank’s analysis, people with a monthly income above UZS 10 million felt price increases more acutely than those earning less than that amount.

Pensioners were the most sensitive to inflation, while representatives of the agricultural sector tended to assess recent price growth as relatively moderate.