Experts assess how war in Iran could affect Uzbekistan’s economy

According to Umarova, Uzbekistan transported about 1.2 million tons of cargo through Iran last year, much of it in transit. For example, Turkey – one of Uzbekistan’s top five trading partners with more than $3 billion in trade – is largely reached via Iranian transit routes.

Limited direct trade, but major transit importance

Umrbek Yusupov, an expert at the Center for Progressive Reforms, said Iran’s direct share in Uzbekistan’s trade remains relatively small.

Uzbekistan’s total foreign trade turnover reached $81.2 billion, including $34 billion in exports and more than $47 billion in imports. Trade with Iran accounts for around $500 million, which is less than 1 percent of the total.

Uzbekistan exports about $157.4 million worth of goods to Iran. Key export items include textiles and cotton fiber. Approximately 30 percent of Uzbekistan’s cotton exports pass through Iranian routes, while raw silk accounts for about 3 percent.

Imports from Iran mainly consist of ferrous metal products, household goods made from petroleum products, agricultural goods, construction materials, fertilizers, and animal feed.

Disruptions in transit routes

Experts warned that ongoing conflicts in the region may disrupt key transport corridors.

Since March 1, reports have indicated that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, preventing vessels from entering the port of Bandar Abbas. In addition, the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan has affected routes through Pakistan.

These disruptions force logistics companies to consider either higher risks and costs or alternative routes.

The Uzbek government had already instructed the Ministry of Transport to explore alternative transport corridors. Earlier estimates suggested that replacing Iranian ports could increase logistics costs by up to 30 percent.

Among the proposed alternatives are routes through China via Kyrgyzstan, as well as northern corridors through Russia. However, these options are longer and more expensive.

Uzbekistan is also pursuing long-term infrastructure projects such as the Uzbekistan – Kyrgyzstan – China railway and new road links toward Pakistan.

Indirect impact through global markets

Experts emphasized that the main economic effects for Uzbekistan will likely be indirect.

Iran holds about 12 percent of the world’s oil reserves and roughly 17 percent of global natural gas reserves, making it one of the leading energy producers. Around 20 percent of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Disruptions in this region could therefore increase global energy prices, which would eventually affect Uzbekistan through higher fuel costs, inflation, and rising prices for other goods.

Logistics and insurance costs may also increase, while higher prices for metal products could influence Uzbekistan’s domestic market, as Iran is a significant regional producer of metals.

Prospects for regional cooperation

Despite the current tensions, experts say Iran will remain an important strategic partner for Uzbekistan.

The two countries previously agreed to increase bilateral trade to $2 billion. While the current situation may complicate progress toward this target, the agreement itself remains in place.

According to analysts, the crisis could also encourage greater regional cooperation in Central Asia, including efforts to develop import substitution and expand trade partnerships.