Shadow and informal economy in Uzbekistan rises to 33% of GDP, topping $36 billion

The size of Uzbekistan’s unobserved economy reached more than $36 billion in the first nine months of 2025, according to the National Statistics Committee. A quarter of that amount represents the shadow economy, whose share, however, is gradually declining.

Preliminary data show that Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product exceeded UZS 1.3 quadrillion ($108.73 billion) during January–September 2025, marking a 7.6% increase in real terms. This is the fastest growth rate since 2021, when the country was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The gross value added of the unobserved economy amounted to UZS 433.67 trillion ($36.17 billion), with its share in GDP rising to 33.3%, up from 32.9% in the first half of the year.

The unobserved economy consists of the informal and shadow sectors. The informal sector – comprising the activities of households and individuals – accounted for UZS 333.82 trillion, or 25.6% of GDP. The shadow sector was estimated at UZS 99.85 trillion (7.7% of GDP). Compared to the first half of the year, the informal sector’s share grew, while the shadow sector’s share declined.

The largest portion of the unobserved economy comes from agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, accounting for 69.4% of the total volume. It is followed, with a significant gap, by services (36.2%) and construction (35%). The industrial sector accounts for 10.2%.

In 2024, Uzbekistan’s unobserved economy exceeded UZS 505 trillion ($40 billion), representing 34.8% of GDP. The informal sector made up UZS 383.64 trillion (26.4%), while the shadow sector was valued at UZS 122 trillion (8.4%).

In September 2023, experts estimated the size of the shadow economy at around $32 billion – roughly 40% of GDP. Its main components included the secondary housing and automobile markets, agriculture, informal trade, and services.

To combat the issue, the Prosecutor General’s Office launched a Telegram bot in July 2024, allowing users to submit both complaints about violations and suggestions for improving oversight.

According to the Statistics Agency, the volume of the “hidden” economy in 2023 approached UZS 100 trillion, with 80% of it concentrated in the services sector.

By the end of 2024, the Prosecutor General’s Office reported recovering nearly UZS 16 trillion for the state budget by bringing businesses “out of the shadows.” More than 15,000 jobs were formalized, and 9,000 entrepreneurs legalized their activities. In addition, criminal cases resulted in UZS 2 trillion in recovered damages.

In December of the same year, Deputy Chair of the Tax Committee Mubin Mirzaev announced that Uzbekistan aims to halve the size of its shadow economy by 2030. The state budget is expected to receive an additional UZS 20 trillion in 2025 as part of the ongoing formalization efforts.