Inflation fears soften, but price pressures stay strong across some regions and sectors

Compared to September, household inflation expectations dropped by 0.3 percentage points in October, standing at around 11.7 percent. In the business sector, expectations fell by 0.6 percentage points to 11.1 percent.

Respondents identified the following as key drivers of inflation:

• rising fuel and energy prices;

• increasing costs of essential food products;

• higher utility tariffs;

• logistics and transportation costs, as well as raw material prices (in the business segment).

Across sectors, households expressed the highest inflation expectations in the area of household services, while pensioners showed the lowest levels of concern. Among businesses, the highest expectations were observed in the culture and arts sector, and the lowest in agriculture.

Regionally, inflation expectations among the population were highest in Tashkent city and lowest in Fergana region. Among entrepreneurs, expectations were higher in Khorezm and relatively lower in Namangan.

The survey covered over 3,400 respondents from the general population and nearly 1,500 business entities. Despite the overall softening of inflation expectations, concerns over rising prices of resources and services remain steady.

Inflation expectations among both households and businesses declined in October. The main sources of price pressure continue to be fuel and energy, food, utilities, and logistics, while certain sectors and regions maintain above-average expectations.