Uzbekistan upgrades growth outlook with higher GDP and lower inflation forecasts

Uzbekistan’s GDP is expected to grow by 7% in 2025, exceeding $140 billion, while GDP per capita will reach $3,700. Inflation is projected to fall below 8% by the end of the year.

Photo: Ministry of Economy and Finance

Uzbekistan may enter the group of upper-middle-income countries before 2030. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Jamshid Kuchkarov announced this on 18 November at the opening ceremony of the 3rd Roundtable on Public–Private Partnership, Spot reported.

Kuchkarov said that despite global challenges, Uzbekistan under the leadership of Shavkat Mirziyoyev remains committed to carrying out “irreversible reforms” aimed at ensuring long-term and sustainable economic growth and macroeconomic stability.

According to forecasts, economic growth in 2025 is expected to exceed 7%, and the volume of gross domestic product will surpass $140 billion. As a result, GDP per capita will reach $3,700. By 2030, the authorities aim to raise GDP to $200 billion and GDP per capita to $5,000.

“In this case, Uzbekistan is moving toward achieving upper-middle-income status earlier than previously projected – mainly due to reforms and productivity growth,” Kuchkarov noted.

He added that inflation remains under control, slowing to 8% in September. By the end of this year, inflation is projected to fall below 8%, and in 2026 – to below 7%.

The Deputy PM also mentioned improvements in Uzbekistan’s credit ratings. Fitch Ratings upgraded the country’s sovereign rating from “BB-” to “BB”, while S&P and Moody’s revised their outlooks to “positive”. “This is historic recognition of the country’s growing reliability in global financial markets,” he concluded.

In September, at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, Shavkat Mirziyoyev stated that Uzbekistan aims to join the group of upper-middle-income countries by 2030.

At an October meeting chaired by the president, it was reported that Uzbekistan’s GDP would exceed $135 billion by the end of this year.

At its most recent meeting, the Central Bank lowered its inflation forecast to 8% for 2025. Last month, annual inflation in Uzbekistan slowed to 7.8% – the lowest level since at least 2017.