According to the model, Spain emerges as the leading favorite, with a 17% chance of claiming the title. France follows with a 14.1% likelihood, while England ranks third at 11.8%.
In a surprising result, defending champions Argentina are given only the fourth-highest probability, with the supercomputer assigning them 8.7%.
Uzbekistan, debuting at the World Cup for the first time in its history, is estimated to have a 0.2% chance of lifting the trophy – a probability identical to that of Tunisia, Scotland, South Africa, Australia and Iran. More than half of the tournament’s 2026 participants (26 teams) are assessed at below a 1% chance of winning.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place from 11 June to 19 July across the United States, Canada and Mexico. The draw for the tournament is scheduled for 5 December.
