Uzbekistan revises 2030 gas production target to 48.5 billion cubic meters

According to the updated "Uzbekistan – 2030" Strategy approved by the president on February 16, natural gas production in Uzbekistan is expected to transition toward sustainable growth beginning in 2027. This shift comes after a period of declining output and follows a revision of long-term production targets.

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The strategy outlines a clear trajectory for the nation’s energy sector over the coming years. While 2025 production was recorded at 41.7 billion cubic meters, with the state-owned Uzbekneftegaz accounting for 25.2 billion cubic meters, a slight temporary dip is anticipated in the immediate future.

For 2026, output is projected to contract by 3.6% (1.5 billion cubic meters), falling to 40.2 billion cubic meters. However, the subsequent years are expected to show steady annual increases:

2027: 42.9 billion cubic meters (+6.7% growth)
2028: 44.5 billion cubic meters (+3.7% growth)
2029: 45.5 billion cubic meters (+2.2% growth)
2030: 48.5 billion cubic meters (+6.5% growth)

Despite this positive trend, the new 2030 target of 48.5 billion cubic meters represents a significant downward revision from the initial goal of 62 billion cubic meters set in September 2023. This adjustment marks a 21.7% decrease from previous expectations.

The finalized strategy shows a more optimistic short-term outlook than the draft version discussed in late 2025, which had predicted a continued decline through 2028. The current roadmap suggests that the government aims to stabilize and reverse the production slump much sooner.

Minister of Energy Jurabek Mirzamahmudov previously noted that the stabilization of the sector will be largely driven by the development of new gas fields in the Republic of Karakalpakstan. These new sources are expected to compensate for the natural depletion of older wells and provide the necessary volume to meet the revised 2030 targets.

The discrepancies noted between official strategy figures and data from the Statistics Agency (which reported 42.3 billion cubic meters for 2025) remain unexplained, though the overarching goal remains focused on securing energy independence and supporting industrial expansion.