Central Bank survey shows downward trend in public inflation expectations

The median level of perceived inflation in Uzbekistan has dropped below 10% for the first time since open observations began, according to the latest survey data from the Central Bank.

In January, inflationary perceptions resumed a downward trend following a slight increase the previous month. The survey, which included 3,562 participants, revealed that the average estimate of price growth over the past 12 months fell by 0.3 percentage points compared to December, landing at 11.7%. The median indicator reached 9.8% – a decrease of 0.4 percentage points – marking a record low for the observation period.

Regional and professional disparities

Perceptions of inflation vary significantly across different regions and sectors of the economy. Tashkent remains the area with the highest perceived inflation at 14%, followed by the Bukhara (13%) and Samarkand (12.7%) regions. In contrast, the lowest estimates were recorded in Khorezm and Navoi (both at 9.7%), as well as Jizzakh (10.3%).

When analyzed by profession, civil servants reported the highest inflation estimates at 14.4%. Other sectors in the top three include:

Industrial workers – 13.5%
Education sector – 12.7%

Conversely, those working in the agricultural sector (9.4%), catering (9.5%), and trade (9.6%) felt the impact of rising prices the least.

Impact of income levels on perception

The survey data suggests a direct correlation between income levels and perceived inflation. Respondents earning higher salaries generally reported steeper price hikes. Specifically:

Over UZS 30 million monthly – 22% perceived inflation
UZS 20–30 million monthly – 15.2% perceived inflation
Under UZS 4 million monthly – approximately 10% perceived inflation

Commodity price trends

Meat and dairy products continue to lead as the most frequently cited items with rising costs, noted by 48% of participants. Other significant contributors include fuel (40%), as well as electricity and natural gas (28%).

However, the percentage of respondents noticing price increases in several other categories dropped significantly compared to December:

Fruits and vegetables: 23% (down from 33%)
Oils: 15% (down from 18%)
Eggs: 13% (down from 17%)
Catering services: 14% (down from 19%)
Clothing and footwear: 11% (down from 17%)

The items with the least reported price growth were rice (6%), sugar and confectionery (7%), and household services (8%). Estimates for bread, flour, and educational services remained stable at 9%.