Middle East tensions drive gasoline prices up in Uzbekistan

Escalating conflict in the Middle East has begun to affect fuel prices in Uzbekistan, with the cost of AI-92 gasoline increasing on the domestic commodity exchange in recent weeks.

Photo: KUN.UZ

Although prices initially declined during the first trading sessions after the start of military actions, they began rising significantly from March 6. Between February 27 and March 13, the exchange price of AI-92 gasoline increased by 5.1 percent.

Global supply disruptions drive price changes

The escalation of the conflict has caused disruptions in global oil supply chains. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil exports pass, has reportedly slowed sharply.

The disruption has pushed global fuel prices upward, with the effects gradually reflected in Uzbekistan’s domestic market.

Before the military escalation began, the price of one ton of AI-92 gasoline on Uzbekistan’s commodity exchange stood at about UZS 12.083 million. During the following four trading sessions, the price fell by around 2 percent to UZS 11.841 million per ton.

However, as global prices began to rise, the domestic market followed the same trend. By March 13, the exchange price of AI-92 gasoline had climbed to UZS 12.704 million per ton – 5.1 percent higher than the February 27 level.

Growing reliance on gasoline imports

Despite having domestic oil extraction and refining capacity, Uzbekistan has become increasingly dependent on imported gasoline to meet rising demand.

According to the State Customs Committee of Uzbekistan, the country imported about 279 million liters of gasoline worth nearly $166 million in January–February 2026.

Compared with the same period in 2025, import volumes doubled while the value of imports increased 2.1 times. In recent months, roughly half of domestic gasoline demand has been met through imports.

Domestic production declines

At the same time, domestic gasoline production has fallen significantly over the past two years.

In 2023, Uzbekistan produced about 1.333 million tons of gasoline. By 2025, output had declined to 1.2 million tons – a decrease of around 10 percent.

The combination of rising imports, falling production, and global market volatility has made the domestic fuel market more sensitive to international developments.