Central Asia’s energy landscape is on the brink of a massive transformation, driven by rapid population growth, industrialization, and a critical need to replace aging Soviet-era infrastructure. According to a comprehensive new report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) titled "Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition," the region is currently grappling with a "trilemma" — the difficult balance between ensuring energy security, maintaining affordability for the public, and achieving environmental sustainability.
The EDB 2026 report highlights that the region, home to over 80 million people, is seeing electricity demand grow by 3–6% annually. By 2030, total consumption is projected to reach approximately 370 billion kWh, a 40% increase from current levels. Meeting this demand will require an estimated $1.4 trillion in total investment across the region to reach Net Zero targets by 2050.
A region divided by resources
The report details a "structural polarization" across Central Asian states. While Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely on hydropower for over 90% of their electricity, the lower-basin countries – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan – remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
In Kazakhstan, coal generates 63% of electricity, while Turkmenistan relies almost entirely (99.9%) on gas. Uzbekistan follows a similar pattern, with coal and gas accounting for roughly 80% of its total generation as of early 2025. This heavy reliance on single sources makes national grids vulnerable to fuel shortages or extreme weather, as seen during Uzbekistan’s 2023 energy crisis when abnormal cold caused gas pressure to drop, leading to widespread blackouts.
The EDB warns that "inertia and structural barriers" have kept the region's generation mix virtually unchanged for 30 years. Furthermore, the physical state of the equipment is alarming, with up to 70% of power grids and thermal plants having reached the end of their service life.
Uzbekistan’s rapid transition
Despite starting its green energy journey later than some neighbors, Uzbekistan is now cited as a model for rapid growth in renewable energy (RE). In the first half of 2025, RE sources generated over 22% of Uzbekistan’s electricity, with solar and wind specifically accounting for approximately 12%.
The report notes that the first large-scale solar farms, built with foreign investment, are already operational, while major wind projects are under construction on the plateau near Nukus and in Jizzakh region. Despite this progress, Uzbekistan’s per capita electricity consumption remains low at 1,800 kWh per year – roughly half the global average – signaling that demand will continue to skyrocket as the economy modernizes.
