Central Bank survey: Utility costs remain primary driver of inflation fears

According to the report, the average forecast for price growth over the next year was 11%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous two months. The median, which had increased in February, returned to 9.5%, a 0.4-percentage-point decline.

Tashkent continues to record the highest expected inflation at 12.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. It is followed by Jizzakh region (12%) and Fergana region (11.4%). The lowest forecasts were recorded in Samarkand region (10.2%) and Namangan region (10.5%).

By occupation, industrial workers reported the highest inflation expectations at 13.6%, followed by the services and IT sectors (12.6%). Lower forecasts were recorded among students and transport workers (10%), as well as bank employees (10.1%) and pensioners (10.2%).

Higher-income respondents continue to expect higher inflation. Among those earning at least UZS 20 million per month, expectations reached 18.4%.

For those earning UZS 10-15 million and UZS 20-30 million, the average forecast stood at 13.1%, while in the UZS 20-25 million bracket it was 12.1%. Respondents earning below UZS 7 million gave the most optimistic forecasts, at 10.6% or lower.

Utility tariffs remained the main factor influencing expectations, cited by 45% of respondents. This was followed by rising energy prices (41%), exchange rate fluctuations (27%), and higher transport costs (25%).

Among businesses, the average inflation forecast for the next 12 months fell by 0.1 percentage points to 10.7%, while the median rose to 9.8%.

The highest business inflation expectations were recorded in Tashkent (12.2%), Kashkadarya region (11.8%), and Jizzakh region (11%). The lowest figures were reported in Navoi, Bukhara, and Fergana regions, all at 10%.

By sector, the highest expectations were reported in tourism (11.5%), IT and education (11.4%), and construction (11.3%). The most moderate forecasts came from the tourism sector (10.1%) and the catering and cultural sectors (both at 10.2%).

As in previous months, rising energy prices (43%) and utility tariffs (40%) remained the main factors influencing business expectations. Increasing transport costs ranked third at 33%. The share of respondents citing exchange rate fluctuations fell to 24%, dropping below those citing rising raw material prices (26%).

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised Uzbekistan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%.