Central Bank: Pensioners and high-income earners express sharpest concerns over future price hikes

On average, citizens reported that prices rose by an annualized 11.1% in April, a slight uptick compared to perceptions recorded in March. However, the burden of these rising costs was distributed unevenly across geographic regions and occupational sectors.

Geographically, residents of the southern regions felt the most severe price pressures. Perceived inflation peaked in Kashkadarya at 12.9% and Surkhandarya at 12.4%. Conversely, the lowest inflation rate was perceived in the Fergana region, where respondents estimated price growth at 9.5%. Tashkent city, the surrounding Tashkent region, Syrdarya, and Namangan all registered perceived inflation levels well above the national average.

When broken down by occupation, trade workers felt the highest squeeze at 13.1%, followed closely by service sector employees at 12.3% and pensioners at 12.2%. Public sector employees expressed the least concern, noting a perceived inflation rate of 9.9%. The items driving these concerns were primary household essentials, with respondents pointing to noticeable price increases for meat, milk, fruits, vegetables, fuel, and medications. Heightened costs were also frequently noted in healthcare, education, and catering services.

The survey revealed a clear correlation between income brackets and inflation awareness. High earners with a monthly income exceeding UZS 20 million perceived an inflation rate above 14%. In contrast, individuals earning between UZS 2 million and UZS 4 million per month reported the lowest perceived impact from rising prices.

Looking ahead, public and private sector forecasts for the next 12 months remain broadly aligned, though driven by different underlying anxieties. On average, citizens anticipate inflation to hover around 10.6% over the next year. Pensioners hold the most pessimistic outlook with an inflation expectation of 12.6%, while students predict the mildest price growth at 9%.

Future anxieties are particularly pronounced among the wealthiest segments of the population. Respondents with monthly earnings surpassing UZS 30 million registered the highest inflation expectations in the survey, forecasting price growth of 16.5%. Regionally, residents of the Tashkent region expressed the deepest concern regarding future increases, estimating future inflation at 11.7%, whereas the Republic of Karakalpakstan holds the most conservative outlook at 9.6%.

The business community projects that the cost of goods and services will rise by 10.3% over the next year. Corporate anxieties are tied primarily to structural overhead expenses, including utility bills, fuel, energy tariffs, and raw materials, alongside broader systemic risks like tax burdens and exchange rate fluctuations. Executives in the culture and handicraft sectors expressed the highest long-term concerns, while geographically, entrepreneurs in Tashkent city anticipate the steepest local price growth at 11.4%.