Uzbekistan’s car market is changing – and UzAuto Motors faces tougher competition

That dynamic is now weakening.

Used-car prices have declined steadily over the past three years, with the analysis estimating a drop of around 30%. As supply improves and consumers have more alternatives, expectations of automatic price appreciation are fading.

That changes buyer behavior. A car is increasingly being viewed as a consumer good that depreciates over time, rather than an asset expected to preserve or increase its value.

Fuel costs are reshaping consumer demand

Changes in the fuel market are adding another source of pressure.

Higher compressed natural gas prices, long queues at filling stations during winter and sharp increases in the cost of propane and petrol are changing the economics of car ownership. For some consumers, that is making hybrid and electric vehicles more attractive.

The shift is already visible in import figures. Uzbekistan imported 37,874 electric vehicles worth $447.7 million in January–June 2026, according to the National Statistics Committee. The number of imported EVs was 2.6 times higher than a year earlier, with Chinese manufacturers accounting for 37,560 vehicles.

China’s growing presence in Uzbekistan’s automotive market is particularly significant. Chinese manufacturers have introduced a broad range of relatively affordable electric, hybrid and conventional models, giving consumers choices that were far less available in the past.

Competition is becoming harder to ignore

The fourth shift is the gradual emergence of stronger competition in the domestic market.

Sales of several foreign brands have been growing. According to figures cited in the analysis, BYD sales increased by 75% in the first half of the year, while Haval sales rose 19%, Chery sales by around 4.5% and Kia sales by 3.5%.

For consumers who once had limited alternatives to UzAuto Motors’ best-selling models, the choice is expanding. Chinese and other Asian manufacturers are increasingly competing for the same customers.

The market is not yet fully competitive, but the direction is clear. The growing availability of alternatives is changing consumer expectations and giving buyers more leverage.

Cars are becoming more affordable relative to incomes

Purchasing power is another part of the equation.

A Cobalt cost around UZS 115 million in 2020. Its current base price is about UZS 156 million, excluding discounts – a nominal increase of roughly 35% over six years.

Over the same period, however, cumulative inflation exceeded 80%, while average wages almost tripled, according to figures cited in the analysis.

Measured against incomes, the Cobalt has therefore become considerably more affordable. The analysis estimates that purchasing one previously required the equivalent of about 45 average monthly salaries. Today, it takes around 22.

That represents a significant shift in the economics of car ownership. Rising production, higher incomes and greater consumer choice are gradually eroding the conditions that once allowed manufacturers to rely on scarcity.

What happens next?

Competitive pressure could increase further as Uzbekistan moves closer to completing its accession to the World Trade Organization.

The country reaffirmed in July 2026 its goal of completing the accession process by the end of the year. WTO membership would require Uzbekistan to align its trade regime with its commitments, including changes to tariff policy.

KPMG’s analysis of Uzbekistan’s automotive market has estimated that WTO accession could bring the average import tariff on passenger cars down to around 10.8%. Its assessment also identifies high import duties and other regulatory barriers as significant constraints on competition.

This does not necessarily mean imported used cars will suddenly become dramatically cheaper. Customs tariffs are only one component of the final cost, while measures such as recycling fees can continue to affect prices.

Lower tariffs on imported components could, however, make it easier for international manufacturers to establish or expand production in Uzbekistan, adding further competitive pressure on existing players.

Another factor is the Uzbekistan–2030 strategy, which sets a target of increasing annual passenger-car production to 1 million vehicles.

Meeting that target would require manufacturers to sell substantially more cars. With foreign competition growing and export markets remaining challenging, a significant share of that additional output would have to be absorbed by the domestic market.

That could make the old model of selling cars through scarcity increasingly impractical.

UzAuto Motors is unlikely to lose its central position in Uzbekistan’s automotive market anytime soon. Its production capacity, established brands and extensive distribution network remain significant advantages.

But the market around the company is changing. Consumers have more cars to choose from, more brands to compare and less reason to view a vehicle as an investment.

For manufacturers, the question is no longer simply how many cars they can produce.

It is how many buyers they can win.