The Central Bank’s Board made the decision at a meeting on November 4. The key rate has remained at 14% since March 2025.
Although inflation has largely stabilized and inflation expectations continue to decline, the regulator believes that domestic demand and external economic uncertainties warrant maintaining tight monetary conditions.
“Despite declining inflation expectations and a relative stabilization of inflation, persistent inflationary risks associated with strong domestic demand and changes in external economic conditions require monetary policy to remain tight,” the Central Bank said.
Inflation and expectations
Annual headline inflation stood at 6.4% in September, slightly higher than in August. The increase was driven primarily by rising prices for fruit and vegetables, fuel and certain services.
Annual services inflation accelerated to 7%, while core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5%.
The Central Bank noted that supply-side factors had played an increasingly significant role in price movements in recent months. At the same time, the slight increase in the share of goods and services recording annual price growth above 5% indicated that inflationary pressures remained.
Households’ and businesses’ inflation expectations continued to decline. In September, households expected inflation of 8.7% over the next 12 months, while businesses put the figure at 9.2%.
However, volatility in global food markets and risks associated with energy prices are adding to external inflationary pressures. The regulator warned that these factors could slow disinflation by pushing up import prices, production costs and transportation expenses.
Economic growth and inflation outlook
Economic activity remained strong, with GDP growing by 8.3% year on year in January–September 2026. Industry, construction and services were the main drivers of growth.
The Central Bank expects investment activity and rising real household incomes to continue supporting domestic demand in the coming months. It has therefore revised its GDP growth forecast upward, projecting expansion of around 8% for 2026.
