Yuli Yusupov forecasts that the global economy will lose 10% of GDP

During the webinar, Yuli Yusupov answered a number of participants’ questions.

What will be the impact of the pandemic on the economy?

When we reach a peak, it is clear that the economic downturn will be significant, even if before May-June, this is a lot for the world economy. We can assume that we lost a month in a year. I suppose that this is 10% of world GDP, but all this is very arbitrary. According to some data on the impact, this crisis is approaching the 2008 global economic crisis in scope.

Which sectors of the economy will suffer the most?

Tourism, transport and hotel business. These areas will suffer the most. In addition, this is the production of durable goods, as during the crisis people are guided by current consumption, they mainly use food products and inexpensive clothes.

Isn’t it better to provide the market with the opportunity to determine for itself those economic entities that can survive? To create conditions for the economy through the withering away of non-competitive business entities?

Yes, competition is a big force and it cleans the economy of those entities that cannot withstand competition. This is its main positive side. But in this case, if we want to support some subjects, but not others, then this is wrong. But if there is a situation where the whole industry needs support, then this is another matter. In addition, in many industries, if many enterprises are allowed to simply close and disappear, then it will be quite difficult to restore the entire industry. Therefore, here I would not be so categorical. I believe that tax breaks, tax holidays, the abolition of certain taxes for certain sectors of the economy will help here, but I emphasize it for the entire sector as a whole, and in no case, for any individual enterprises. This is fraught with big problems.