The Munich Security Conference, held from February 14 to 16 of this year, has reflected a significant shift in the global order. In essence, it has dealt a blow to the fundamental principles of the Western bloc system that emerged following the end of World War II. From this point forward, the alliance between Europe and the United States appears to be losing its former significance. The statement by U.S. Vice President Vance, coupled with the commencement of negotiations between the United States and Russia on resolving the Ukrainian crisis without European participation, represents a serious challenge to the architecture of European security. This development raises a critical question: what trajectory will the European Union’s foreign policy take in the new geopolitical landscape? Could there be shifts in the EU’s approach to the Middle East, Iran, Central and South Asia, Afghanistan, China, and the Far East?
Values
Since the Cold War, European countries have participated in virtually all of the United States’ overseas conflicts. Guided by considerations of shared values and security, EU and NATO member states have supported Washington’s initiatives in military campaigns such as those in Korea, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Furthermore, due to U.S. policies, European countries have historically adopted a negative stance towards Iran and China. In the emerging international configuration, the following transformations in the EU’s foreign policy can be anticipated.
China and Central Asia
A reassessment of relations between Europe and China appears possible. During the Munich Conference, European leaders exhibited noticeable cordiality toward Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The broad spectrum of issues discussed between the parties may signal an expansion of dialogue. If ensuring Europe’s security becomes an exclusively European responsibility, then the strategy of “containing” China may remain primarily a U.S. prerogative within its global agenda.
The policy of “containing” China does not yield significant benefits for the European Union beyond demonstrating solidarity with the United States. Meanwhile, deepening cooperation with China could substantially enhance trade and economic ties across the Eurasian supercontinent. The EU and China, as two major economic centers located at opposite ends of Eurasia, have the potential to foster dynamic regional development through increased interaction.
The implementation of initiatives such as the Middle Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to contribute to the revival of the ancient Silk Road in a modern format. In this context, the nations situated between these two economic giants – Central Asian, Caucasian, and Middle Eastern states – stand to gain significantly by serving as key transit hubs.
