IMF raises Uzbekistan’s growth forecast but warns of higher inflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates an acceleration in both economic growth and inflation in Uzbekistan during 2025–2026, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report.

For 2025, the IMF forecasts Uzbekistan’s economic growth to rise from last year’s 6.5% to 6.8%, an upward revision of 0.9 percentage points compared to the April report. The 2026 forecast has also been improved – growth is now expected at 6%, up from the previous estimate of 5.8%.

However, the IMF has revised its inflation outlook upward. While in April the Fund projected inflation to slow to 8.4% (from 9.6% in 2024), it now expects it to accelerate to 9.1%. This figure also exceeds the Central Bank’s September forecast of 8.7%.

The IMF has likewise worsened its inflation forecast for the following year, now projecting 7.1%, compared to the April estimate of 6.5% – which was close to the Central Bank’s 5% target.

At the same time, the Fund expects a significant improvement in Uzbekistan’s current account balance. The current account deficit is projected at 2.4% of GDP in 2025 (compared to 5% in the April outlook) and 4.6% of GDP in 2026 (previously 4.8%). This is likely linked to rising global gold prices, which have surpassed $4,000 per troy ounce.