Russia’s gas exports to Uzbekistan may surge fourfold by 2030

Over the next five years, Gazprom’s natural gas supplies to Central Asia are set to more than double. The company is seeking alternative destinations for volumes previously intended for the European market, Vedomosti reported, citing data from Gazprombank’s Economic Forecasting Center.

The potential volume of supplies is estimated at 19–20 billion cubic meters.

By 2030, Gazprom’s exports to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan could grow by 2.1–2.2 times, the report says. Uzbekistan is expected to account for the bulk of the increase by boosting imports from 3 billion to 12 billion cubic meters, amid declining domestic gas production.

The outlook for gas supplies in Kazakhstan remains uncertain. Despite China’s “reservations,” Astana hopes to move forward with a project to build a gas pipeline from Russia to China via Kazakhstan. The pipeline would make it possible to gasify the country’s northeast and deliver an additional 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

As a reminder, Western sanctions have forced Gazprom to cut gas exports to Europe by roughly five times. At the same time, even if the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is launched, the company will not be able to redirect all of its volumes to China.