Uzbekistan plans to boost gas production and overtake Turkmenistan by 2030

Uzbekistan plans to increase natural gas production by 4.5 times and surpass Turkmenistan, according to the updated Uzbekistan-2030 Strategy, published on the regulation.gov.uz portal for public consultation.

By 2030, gas production is expected to reach 186.8 billion cubic meters. In the previous strategy approved in September 2023, the target was set at just 62 billion cubic meters. This means the production goal has now been revised upward by a factor of three.

For comparison, Turkmenistan plans to produce 80 billion cubic meters of gas in 2025. At its peak in 2018–2019, Russia exported more than 175–180 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas to Europe.

In 2026, gas output in Uzbekistan is expected to continue declining to 37.9 billion cubic meters. According to the National Statistics Committee, gas production totaled 38.9 billion cubic meters over the first 11 months of this year, down 5.1 percent compared with 2024.

However, a sharp turnaround is projected from 2027, when gas production is forecast to double from 37.9 billion to 73.5 billion cubic meters. Output is expected to rise further to 106.9 billion cubic meters in 2028 and 148.1 billion cubic meters in 2029.

Responsibility for expanding gas production has been assigned to the Ministry of Energy and state-owned company Uzbekneftegaz.

Over the past four years, gas production in Uzbekistan has declined by 21.7 percent. The downturn has been attributed to insufficient strategic planning and an excessive focus on short-term objectives, which prevented the achievement of expected results.

In mid-December, Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov said Uzbekistan plans to halt the decline in natural gas production in 2026 by developing new gas fields in Karakalpakstan.