Revised data reveal $700M gap in Uzbekistan’s 2024 gas production figures

According to updated figures, Uzbekistan produced 41.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2024, down from the earlier reported figure of 44.6 billion cubic meters. The difference of 3.3 billion cubic meters could be worth an estimated $650–700 million at prevailing regional prices. No official explanation has been provided for the sudden revision.

The revised data also indicate a sharper decline in gas production than previously reported. While earlier statistics suggested a year-on-year decrease of 4.5 percent in 2024, the updated figures show a contraction of 11.5 percent. The discrepancy emerged after industrial statistics released at the end of 2025 cited 41.3 billion cubic meters for 2024, contradicting an earlier year-end report that put production at 44.6 billion cubic meters.

Economist Otabek Bakirov drew attention to the scale of the gap, noting that 3.3 billion cubic meters roughly equals one month of gas production in Uzbekistan. He argued that the issue warrants independent research and investigation.

“If the updated data are correct, then at least 3.3 billion cubic meters were either overstated in the 2024 figures or recorded due to an error,” Bakirov said. “That amounts to about 8 percent of annual production, or an entire month’s output. At regional prices, this volume of gas is worth $650–700 million. Explaining it away as a simple mistake is difficult.”

Bakirov suggested that the discrepancy could point to deeper issues in the balance between gas production, imports, and exports, including potential intermediary schemes and misallocated subsidies. “If the new figures are taken as the baseline, gas production in 2024 would have fallen by as much as 5.4 billion cubic meters,” he added.

Kun.uz reported that it contacted the National Statistics Committee for clarification but did not receive a clear response. Neither the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, nor Uzbekneftegaz has issued an official comment on the matter.

The revelation comes amid recent changes in the energy sector’s leadership. In mid-December last year, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s representative on energy security, Alisher Sultanov, was dismissed, followed shortly by the removal of Uzbekneftegaz head Bakhodir Sidikov.