EBRD raises Uzbekistan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 6.5%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has upgraded its economic outlook for Uzbekistan, raising the country’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6.5%. This adjustment, detailed in the bank’s February "Regional Economic Prospects" report, follows an earlier, more conservative estimate of 6% made in September 2025.

Photo: Kun.uz

According to the EBRD, Uzbekistan’s economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025, with growth accelerating to 7.7% – up from 6.7% in 2024. While the bank expects a slight moderation in the coming years, with growth projected at 6.5% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, the country remains one of the top performers in the region.

Regional dynamics and drivers of growth

The EBRD report notes that economic growth across Central Asia rose from 5.9% in 2024 to an estimated 6.9% in 2025. This surge was underpinned by increased private consumption, rapid credit expansion, stable remittance flows, and high levels of investment.

The regional growth forecast for 2026 was also revised upward to 5.6%, largely due to major investment projects currently underway in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. However, Uzbekistan continues to distinguish itself through its diversifying trade relations and robust industrial activity.

Surge in exports to the United States

A standout feature of Uzbekistan’s recent economic performance is its rapid integration into the U.S. market. Between January and October 2025, Uzbekistan emerged as one of the leading nations in terms of the absolute and relative growth of exports to the United States.

This growth was particularly evident in the supply of precious metals. EBRD analysts attribute this trend not only to rising global prices but also to a significant increase in physical shipment volumes. Experts suggest that the heightened demand for these materials is likely linked to the global expansion of the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, which requires specialized components containing precious metals.

Comparative international outlook

The EBRD's optimistic revision aligns with other international financial institutions, although some remain slightly more cautious.

The World Bank: In its January report, it projected 6% growth for 2026, placing Uzbekistan among the top three fastest-growing economies in the Europe and Central Asia region.
National targets: The Government of Uzbekistan, in its 2026 state budget law, has set a growth target of 6.6%.

The National Statistics Committee confirmed that the 7.7% growth achieved in 2025 was the highest recorded since 2021. This performance provides a strong foundation for the government's ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure development projects.