Opta supercomputer assesses Uzbekistan’s 2026 World Cup chances

Opta’s model gives Uzbekistan just a 0.07% chance of lifting the trophy when the tournament kicks off across the United States, Canada, and Mexico this summer. While the odds are slim, the mere fact that Uzbekistan will compete on football’s biggest stage marks a historic milestone for Central Asian football.

Stage-by-stage breakdown

The supercomputer’s projections paint a challenging but not entirely hopeless picture for Uzbekistan. Their chances of reaching the round of 16 stand at 5.45%. A quarter-final berth is rated at 3.78%, a semi-final appearance at 1.16%, and a place in the final at 0.32% — before the 0.07% title figure.

Spain lead the favorites

Opta’s model identifies Spain as the overwhelming favorite, with a 15.43% probability of being crowned world champions. France follow in second place at 12.54%, with England rounding out the top three at 10.88%. Reigning champions Argentina sit fourth at 10.28%, ahead of Portugal (6.73%), Brazil (6.62%), and Germany (5.62%).

The top 15 contenders, according to Opta, are as follows:

1. Spain — 15.43%

2. France — 12.54%

3. England — 10.88%

4. Argentina — 10.28%

5. Portugal — 6.73%

6. Brazil — 6.62%

7. Germany — 5.62%

8. Netherlands — 3.88%

9. Norway — 3.59%

10. Belgium — 2.26%

11. Colombia — 2.24%

12. Uruguay — 1.72%

13. Mexico — 1.71%

14. Morocco — 1.70%

15. Switzerland — 1.66%

Uzbekistan’s place among Asia’s representatives

Among the AFC contingent heading to the tournament, Japan leads the way with a 1.47% shot at the title. South Korea follows at 0.37%, Iran at 0.24%, and Saudi Arabia at a 0.07% chance — level with Uzbekistan. Jordan and Qatar have 0.06% and 0.05% chances respectively, according to the supercomputer.

About the tournament

The 2026 World Cup runs from June 11 to July 19, with 48 national teams competing across three host nations. Canada will stage 13 matches at venues in Toronto and Vancouver, while Mexico hosts another 13 across stadiums in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey. The United States will host all remaining matches.