With one round of matches remaining in Group K, Uzbekistan sits bottom of the standings without a point after losses to Colombia and Portugal. Colombia has already secured a place in the Round of 32 with six points, while Portugal is second on four. DR Congo occupies third place with one point, leaving Uzbekistan with only one realistic objective: beating DR Congo in the final group match and hoping results elsewhere work in its favor.
Unlike previous World Cups, the expanded 48-team tournament allows not only the top two teams from each of the 12 groups to progress but also the eight best third-placed teams. That format is the only reason Uzbekistan remains in contention despite its difficult start. Colombia sealed qualification by defeating DR Congo, while Portugal strengthened its position with a commanding victory over Uzbekistan.
However, the mathematics are becoming increasingly unfavorable.
Even if Uzbekistan defeats DR Congo, it can finish with no more than three points. That would leave the team in third place, as Portugal already has four points and cannot be overtaken. As a result, Uzbekistan's hopes depend entirely on ranking among the tournament's best third-placed teams.
The challenge is that several groups have already produced third-placed teams with three or four points. South Korea finished third in Group A with 3 points and a goal difference of –1, while Bosnia and Herzegovina collected 4 points in Group B. Scotland ended third in Group C with 3 points and a goal difference of –3. Other groups remain unresolved, meaning additional third-placed teams could yet surpass Uzbekistan's potential tally.
Goal difference could prove decisive
After conceding eight goals and scoring only once in its first two matches, Uzbekistan enters the final round with a goal difference of –7. A narrow victory over DR Congo would improve that figure only marginally and would likely leave the White Wolves behind several rival third-placed teams on tiebreakers.
Under FIFA regulations, teams level on points are separated first by goal difference and then by goals scored.
That means Uzbekistan would ideally need not only to beat DR Congo but to do so convincingly. A multi-goal victory could significantly improve its standing in the race for one of the eight third-place qualification spots.
