Can Uzbekistan still qualify for the World Cup knockout stage?

With one round of matches remaining in Group K, Uzbekistan sits bottom of the standings without a point after losses to Colombia and Portugal. Colombia has already secured a place in the Round of 32 with six points, while Portugal is second on four. DR Congo occupies third place with one point, leaving Uzbekistan with only one realistic objective: beating DR Congo in the final group match and hoping results elsewhere work in its favor.

Unlike previous World Cups, the expanded 48-team tournament allows not only the top two teams from each of the 12 groups to progress but also the eight best third-placed teams. That format is the only reason Uzbekistan remains in contention despite its difficult start. Colombia sealed qualification by defeating DR Congo, while Portugal strengthened its position with a commanding victory over Uzbekistan.

However, the mathematics are becoming increasingly unfavorable.

Even if Uzbekistan defeats DR Congo, it can finish with no more than three points. That would leave the team in third place, as Portugal already has four points and cannot be overtaken. As a result, Uzbekistan's hopes depend entirely on ranking among the tournament's best third-placed teams.

The challenge is that several groups have already produced third-placed teams with three or four points. South Korea finished third in Group A with 3 points and a goal difference of –1, while Bosnia and Herzegovina collected 4 points in Group B. Scotland ended third in Group C with 3 points and a goal difference of –3. Other groups remain unresolved, meaning additional third-placed teams could yet surpass Uzbekistan's potential tally.

Goal difference could prove decisive

After conceding eight goals and scoring only once in its first two matches, Uzbekistan enters the final round with a goal difference of –7. A narrow victory over DR Congo would improve that figure only marginally and would likely leave the White Wolves behind several rival third-placed teams on tiebreakers.

Under FIFA regulations, teams level on points are separated first by goal difference and then by goals scored.

That means Uzbekistan would ideally need not only to beat DR Congo but to do so convincingly. A multi-goal victory could significantly improve its standing in the race for one of the eight third-place qualification spots.

The team will also require favorable results elsewhere. Several nations currently sitting third in their respective groups still have matches remaining and could improve their positions. Uzbekistan's chances would benefit if those teams fail to collect additional points, reducing the number of competitors in the third-place rankings.

For now, the equation is straightforward: defeat DR Congo and hope. Anything less than a win will end Uzbekistan's World Cup journey immediately.

While qualification remains mathematically possible, the heavy defeat to Portugal has transformed what was once a realistic path to the knockout rounds into a long-shot scenario. The final group match on June 28 will determine whether Uzbekistan's historic first World Cup appearance continues into the Round of 32 or comes to an end in the group stage.