Headline inflation continued to slow in August, reaching 6.2%, while core inflation stood at 5.5%.
At the same time, the growing share of goods and services with annual price increases of more than 5% indicates that price pressures in the economy remain persistent, the central bank said.
Inflation expectations among households and businesses continued to decline, but at a slower pace than headline inflation, indicating the continued influence of inflationary inertia on price-setting processes.
Positive trends in retail trade, the services sector and investment point to strong consumer and investment demand, while some components of aggregate demand have shown signs of stabilization in recent months.
In particular, credit growth is gradually moderating under the impact of current tight monetary conditions. Positive real interest rates are supporting households' propensity to save.
High prices on global commodity, food and energy markets continue to put pressure on domestic inflation through import prices, transportation and logistics costs in the medium term, according to the regulator.
The extent of the secondary effects of external price shocks on domestic inflation will largely depend on domestic demand dynamics and the structural measures being implemented.
The appreciation of the Uzbek soum's real effective exchange rate during the year, driven by the depreciation of the currencies of some major trading partners, is helping to ease inflationary pressures through import prices.
The ongoing liberalization of regulated prices may amplify secondary inflationary effects through production costs and service prices, the central bank said.
Maintaining current tight monetary conditions is necessary to prevent these inflationary risks from becoming persistent inflationary processes, mitigate their potential secondary effects and ensure a sustained decline in inflation expectations, it said.
The central bank will closely monitor developments in inflation and inflation expectations, domestic demand factors, and changes in external economic conditions, and will continue to ensure the monetary conditions necessary to bring inflation down to the 5% target by the end of 2027.
