EDB forecasts 7.4 percent economic growth for Uzbekistan next year

The EDB has published its macroeconomic forecasts for member states for 2026–2028. The report outlines expectations for economic growth, inflation, fiscal and monetary policy, and exchange rates.

Kyrgyzstan set to break records

The Eurasian Development Bank expects strong economic growth across Central Asia in 2025. While the region’s gross domestic product expanded by 5.8 percent in 2024, growth is projected to accelerate to 6.6 percent in 2025.

The fastest growth in the region next year is forecast for Kyrgyzstan, where GDP is expected to increase by nearly 10.3 percent. Kazakhstan is projected to post growth of 5.9 percent. For both countries, these figures represent their highest growth rates since 2013.

The EDB also forecasts growth of 7.4 percent in Uzbekistan – the highest level in the past 14 years, excluding the post-COVID recovery period. Strong growth is also expected in Armenia at 6 percent and in Tajikistan at 8.3 percent.

In Russia, economic growth is projected to slow sharply to 1 percent in 2025, down from 4.3 percent in 2024 – the lowest rate among the countries analyzed. Belarus is also expected to see growth ease from 4 percent in 2024 to 1.8 percent this year.

Outlook for next year

In 2026, Kyrgyzstan is again expected to lead the region with economic growth of 9.3 percent. Tajikistan follows with 8.1 percent, Uzbekistan with 6.8 percent, and Kazakhstan with 5.5 percent. Armenia’s GDP is projected to grow by 5.3 percent, while Belarus and Russia are expected to post growth of 1.8 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

Inflation forecasts

Among EDB member states, the highest inflation rate by the end of 2025 is expected in Kazakhstan at 12.3 percent. Relatively high inflation is also forecast in Kyrgyzstan at 9.1 percent and in Uzbekistan at 7.5 percent. The lowest inflation rate is projected for Tajikistan at 3 percent. By year-end, consumer price growth is expected to reach 3.3 percent in Armenia, 6 percent in Russia, and 7.1 percent in Belarus.

Inflationary pressures across the region are expected to continue easing in 2026. Annual price growth in Kazakhstan is projected to slow to 9.7 percent and in Kyrgyzstan to 8.3 percent. Inflation is also expected to decline to 6.9 percent in Belarus, 6.7 percent in Uzbekistan, and 5.5 percent in Russia. In Armenia, annual inflation is forecast to remain at 3.3 percent by the end of 2026, while in Tajikistan it is expected to rise to 4.5 percent, up by 1.5 percentage points.

Uzbekistan-specific projections

EDB experts note that Uzbekistan’s economic growth is being supported by strong domestic demand, investment activity, and high gold prices. According to the forecast, monetary policy in the country will remain relatively tight in 2026. As inflation continues to slow, the policy interest rate is expected to be reduced gradually, reaching 13.7 percent by the end of next year. The rate is projected to fall further to 12.4 percent in 2027 and to 11.6 percent by the end of 2028.

Uzbekistan’s GDP is expected to grow by 6.4 percent in 2027 and by 6.3 percent in 2028. Sustaining growth will require continued economic diversification, an increase in non-commodity exports, and the ongoing positive impact of completed infrastructure projects, the report notes.

Inflation in Uzbekistan is projected to decline to 5.8 percent by the end of 2027 and to 5.2 percent by the end of 2028.

The Eurasian Development Bank has also released its expectations for the U.S. dollar exchange rate in Uzbekistan. According to the forecast, by the end of 2025 one U.S. dollar is expected to be worth UZS 12,647. The rate is projected to reach UZS 12,800 by the end of 2026, rise to UZS 14,100 by the end of 2027, and increase further to UZS 15,100 by the end of 2028.