Central Asia faces unusually heavy summer rainfall driven by El Nino, UN WMO warns

While the connection between atmospheric processes in the equatorial Pacific and the weather in Central Asia may not seem immediately obvious, a dangerous cumulative effect is expected to emerge this year. Human-induced factors have already left the planet's atmosphere and hydrosphere dangerously overheated. Consequently, instead of typical seasonal weather variations, the region will face sudden, massive amounts of precipitation. UN projections indicate that Central Asia – along with the southern United States – will become a primary target for these anomalous downpours. Meanwhile, predominantly dry conditions are anticipated across Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia.

El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It disrupts atmospheric circulation and global weather patterns, typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting for about a year. However, its consequences extend far beyond the Pacific, shifting temperature and precipitation trends across nearly the entire globe.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the global community to treat the impending El Nino as a critical climate warning, stating in a video address that the phenomenon will add fuel to the fire of global warming. He noted that its impacts will be felt faster and more widespread than in the past. To counter these effects, he emphasized the need to accelerate the transition to renewable energy, protect vulnerable populations, and advance early-warning systems.

World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo also stressed that the current situation demands heightened preparedness. She highlighted the necessity of bracing for a powerful El Nino event that could intensify both droughts and heavy rains, while elevating the risk of heatwaves on land and at sea.

Meteorologists estimate that there is an 80% probability of El Nino conditions developing over the coming summer months. Furthermore, the likelihood of this anomaly persisting through the winter exceeds 90%. Global climate centers have previously reported the formation of a strong El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to exert a significant influence on weather patterns throughout 2026–2027.