Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan rise as currency fluctuations impact forecasts

Inflation expectations in Uzbekistan have continued to climb, with citizens anticipating a price increase of 13.3% over the next 12 months, according to a recent report from the Central Bank. This figure represents a 0.2% increase from August's forecast, while the median inflation rate remains unchanged at 11.1%.

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Tashkent has regained the top spot for inflation expectations, with a forecast of 15.2%, followed closely by Surkhandarya at 14.4% and Samarkand at 14.1%. Conversely, Karakalpakstan, Kashkadarya, and Fergana report lower projections, ranging from 12.2% to 12.5%.

In terms of professional sectors, trade leads with an inflation forecast of 14%, followed by transportation and IT at 13.9%. Agricultural workers displayed the most optimism, expecting a rise of 11.3%, while representatives from the tourism industry forecasted an increase of 11.9%. Government officials anticipate inflation at 12.5%.

Income levels significantly influence inflation expectations. Citizens earning 15 million UZS per month or more predict the highest inflation rate at 15.8%. Those in the 10-15 million UZS bracket expect 14.4%, while individuals earning 2-3 million UZS forecast 13.8%.

Currency fluctuations have emerged as the primary factor influencing inflation projections, identified by 50% of respondents. This was followed by energy resource prices at 47% and utility tariffs at 45%. The proportion of respondents citing salary and benefit increases has slightly decreased to 39%, with speculative price hikes (29%), rising transport costs (28%), and food expenses (25%) also contributing to inflation concerns.

Among entrepreneurs, the average inflation forecast has risen by 0.1% to 12.6%, with a median of 10.8%. Enterprises in the capital region rated their expectations the highest at 14.4%, followed by Jizzakh and Samarkand at 13.4%. The lowest inflation expectations were noted in Karakalpakstan (10.7%), Fergana (10.8%), and Khorezm (11%).

In terms of sectors, the highest inflation forecasts come from healthcare (13.6%), construction (13.3%), and culture (13.1%), while the hospitality industry (11.3%), tourism (11.7%), and transportation (11.9%) have the lowest projections.

Overall, the dynamics of currency fluctuations, utility tariffs, and energy prices remain the principal factors shaping inflation forecasts in Uzbekistan.