UNICEF projects Uzbekistan’s population to surpass 52 million by 2050

Uzbekistan is experiencing rapid population growth that will push the country toward major demographic milestones in the coming decades. After climbing from 25 million in 2000 to 37 million in 2025, the population shows no signs of slowing down. According to a UNICEF analytical brief titled "Generation 2050 Central Asia," the country's population is projected to surpass 40 million by 2030 and exceed 52 million by 2050. This continuous expansion is driven primarily by birth rates consistently outpacing mortality rates.

Photo: KUN.UZ

Recent data confirms this ongoing demographic surge in real time. Uzbekistan began 2026 with 38.2 million residents on January 1, and the figure rose to 38,401,654 people by April 7. These figures cement Uzbekistan's position among the top 40 most populous countries in the world.

Rising median age signals a maturing population

The age structure of the population indicates that the country’s demographic profile is gradually maturing. In 2000, the median age in Uzbekistan was just 20 years. By 2024, it had risen to nearly 30 years, and forecasts suggest this aging trend will accelerate, bringing the median age to 35 by 2050.

A breakdown of future age groups highlights significant structural shifts:

The working-age population (aged 15–64) is expected to expand from 23.9 million in 2024 to over 33 million by 2050. Meanwhile, the elderly population will experience a massive spike, growing from 2.2 million in 2024 to more than 6 million by 2050 – a threefold increase.

The projected rise in the median age to 35 by mid-century is closely linked to gradual shifts in fertility rates. During the 1990s, the average fertility rate in Uzbekistan exceeded 4 children per woman. Since then, the rate has decreased noticeably, creating a major shift in the demographic balance. This downward trend is expected to continue, and by 2050, the fertility rate is projected to approach replacement level, stabilizing at an average of 2.5–2.6 children per woman.

Although the total number of children in Uzbekistan is expected to hover around 16 million by 2050, their percentage share of the total population will shrink compared to previous decades. This transition indicates that Uzbekistan is steadily moving away from a youth-dominated demographic era and entering a phase of demographic maturity.